Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's prediction about AI in software development is nowhere nearly to becoming a reality
IT Pro
Council on Foreign Relations CEO Speaker Series, in conversation with Michael Froman
“I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Dario Amodei10 March 2025- What you'll lose4/5
'Essentially all of the code' within a year.
- Condescension0/5
Plainly put.
- Tone-deafness2/5
Six months later, critics checked.
- Doom2/5
A profession on a 12-month timer.
- Hypocrisy0/5
None.
Full time8 pitchforksof a possible 25
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The occasion
Council on Foreign Relations CEO Speaker Series, in conversation with Michael Froman, 10 March 2025.
Context
Asked about AI and software engineering at a Council on Foreign Relations event on Monday 2025-03-10 (date from the CFR event page), Amodei predicted AI would write most code within months. Six months later critics said it had not happened industry-wide; John Gruber argued in March 2026 that Amodei was broadly right in substance.
Crowd reaction
Critical commentary
IT Pro wrote that "having passed the six-month mark, Amodei's bold prediction hasn't quite come to fruition"; The Register noted in January 2026 that he "made a prediction that has not come to pass" and added "Spoiler: human developers still have jobs"; Daring Fireball filed it under "claim chowder" while arguing he was only wrong insofar as the remark was too facile.
- Primary source, video
- IT Pro: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's prediction about AI in software development is nowhere nearly to becoming a reality
- Entrepreneur: 'I Do Have a Fair Amount of Concern.' The CEO of $61 Billion Anthropic Says AI Will Take Over a Crucial Part of Software Engineers' Jobs Within a Year
- Daring Fireball: Claim Chowder: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on the Percentage of Code Being Generated by AI Today
- The Register: Anthropic CEO bloviates for 20,000+ words in thinly veiled plea against regulation
- Where the exact words are printed